Macro View

Daily Insights

Likely border/budget deal, trade deadline extension push S&P 500 above key technical support level. Reports out of Washington yesterday indicated that President Trump plans to sign a border security deal that would pave the way for a budget agreement, averting a second government shutdown. The news, along with separate comments from the president that the March 1 trade deal deadline could be pushed back if sufficient progress is made in this week’s negotiations, helped drive stocks higher. The S&P 500 Index closed above its 200-day moving average, a key technical support level, for the first time since December 3.

Consumer inflation little changed. Consumer Price Index data out this morning was little changed from the prior month. The headline index’s 1.6% year-over-year increase in January was the smallest since June 2017 as falling oil prices offset rising shelter and apparel prices. The core reading, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, increased 2.2% for a third straight month. The data continue to suggest an environment characterized by stable inflation that support the Federal Reserve’srecent guidance that it intends to scale back its rate-hike campaign.

The Year of the Pig.
 The Chinese New Year started earlier this month and with it came the Year of the Pig. Let us stress that we would never suggest to invest purely based on the signs of the zodiac, but it is also worth pointing out that out of the 12 zodiac signs, stocks have done the best during the Year of the Pig. Today on the LPL Research blog we will take a closer look at this fun phenomena.

Monitoring the Week Ahead

Click Here for our detailed Weekly Economic Calendar

Wednesday

  • CPI Report (MoM, Jan)
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (Dec)
  • Japan GDP Report (Preliminary, Q4 2018)
  • China Imports (Jan)
  • China Exports (Jan)
  • China Trade Balance (Jan)

Thursday

  • PPI Report (MoM, Jan)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (Feb. 9)
  • Germany GDP Report (Preliminary, Q4 2018)
  • Eurozone GDP Report (Preliminary, Q4 2018)
  • Japan Industrial Production (Dec)
  • China CPI Report (Jan)
  • China PPI Report (Jan)

Friday

  • Retail Sales (MoM, Jan)
  • Industrial Production (MoM, Jan); Cons: 0.2%, LP: 0.3%
  • University of Michigan Sentiment Index (Preliminary, Feb); LP: 91.2
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (Dec)

 
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Index data obtained via FactSet

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