Fed minutes. Traders will be looking for clues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) intentions for the terminal size and asset mix of its ~$4.5 trillion balance sheet when the minutes of last month’s monetary policy meeting are released at 2:00EST. Though not expected to return to post-Financial Crisis levels (<$1 trillion) due to increased demand for currency, reserves, and other Fed liabilities, several Fed presidents have recently indicated they favor ending the balance sheet runoff by the end of 2019, maintaining reserves of ~$3.6 trillion.
Upbeat Housing Market Index kicks off string of related data. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for February was up for a second straight month with all sub-indexes rising, along with builder confidence. Recent data is encouraging, though growth in the overall housing market has not matched the broader economy. Up next is Thursday’s existing home sales for January.
Trimming our growth forecast. Economic data have consistently missed expectations recently as investors and Wall Street have struggled to quantify the impact of global trade and political risks. In response, economists have cut their fourth-quarter 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts, and we’ve trimmed our 2019 GDP forecast as well. On the LPL Research bloglater today, we’ll outline our case for slightly lower growth expectations this year, even though we believe the U.S. economic expansion is still intact.
NEW Street View video. LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch discusses fundamentals supporting GDP, inflation, employment, and corporate profits. Watch and share the video now.
Monitoring the Week Ahead
- FOMC Meeting Minutes (Jan)
- Germany PPI Report (Jan)
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Feb)
- Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary Feb)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 16)
- Durable Goods Orders (Preliminary Dec)
- Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary Feb)
- Markit US Services PMI (Preliminary Feb)
- Markit US Composite PMI (Preliminary Feb)
- Leading Index (Jan)
- Existing Home Sales (Jan)
- Germany CPI Report (Jan)
- Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary Feb)
- Japan CPI Report (Jan)
- Germany GDP Report (Q4 2018)
- Eurozone CPI Report (Jan)
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.
All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
All company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
The investment products sold through LPL Financial are not insured deposits and are not FDIC/NCUA insured. These products are not Bank/Credit Union obligations and are not endorsed, recommended or guaranteed by any Bank/Credit Union or any government agency. The value of the investment may fluctuate, the return on the investment is not guaranteed, and loss of principal is possible.
Index data obtained via FactSet
For Public Use – Tracking # 1-824350 (Exp. 2/20)