Research

On Wednesday, May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) essentially blocked the majority of President Trump’s tariffs. A three-judge panel issued summary judgment against the tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), claiming they were unconstitutional and “exceed any authority granted by the President by IEEPA.”

In just a matter of hours last week, investors apparently decided that stocks were on sale, and it was time to buy. But nothing materially changed as consumers were still pessimistic about the future, firms were on the sidelines waiting to deploy capital amid tariff uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remained committed to their “Wait and See” stance.

Earnings continued to come in better-than feared, but “tariff uncertainty” continued to get flagged on most conference calls. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged and stuck to its patient approach with monetary policy, despite notable downgrades to economic growth estimates and rising recession probabilities since their last meeting.

The municipal bond market faced significant volatility in April, driven by spillovers from a turbulent Treasury market. Treasury yields were pressured higher by rising inflation expectations; the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance, reduced foreign demand; hedge fund deleveraging, portfolio shifts toward cash, and structural illiquidity.