While much has (rightfully) been made of the ongoing debt and deficit spending here in the U.S., the fiscal positions of major developed economies reveal profound disparities in debt management and long-term trend sustainability. Mounting government obligations could have significant implications on economic stability and monetary policy flexibility if not remedied.
The S&P 500 has gained more than 30% since its low on April 8, 2025, and is up 5% since the index fully recovered its early-year correction losses on June 27, 2025 (with a close of 6,144).
The end of Labor Day weekend often arrives with a bittersweet tone — it’s a final salute to summer’s warmth and leisure before the cool air of fall arrives for much of the country.
As central bankers, economists, and policymakers gathered last weekend in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park for the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the Federal Reserve (Fed) found itself at a critical juncture marked by political pressures, personnel changes, and internal divisions over monetary policy direction.
As we wrote on August 11, companies have done a good job overall adjusting to tariffs so far, which was evident during earnings season. While several factors have helped mute the recent tariff effects, companies will experience more cost pressures in the months ahead.
We have been pleasantly surprised by how well stocks have handled the sharp increase in tariffs. Since the market low from the early April tariff scare, the S&P 500 Index has gained more than 28%.
Last week was one for the ages in terms of the number and magnitude of events and data points for investors to digest. A Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, the monthly jobs report, and the peak week of earnings season would be enough to qualify as a busy week.
Last week, investors were reminded of the persistent impact the pandemic had on many macro models. In particular, the Leading Economic Index (LEI), which has historically been the Conference Board’s accurate leading indicator of the business cycle, still points to a deep, imminent recession as of last month.
And while we think the interplay between the good (lower rates) and bad (higher term premium) will persist throughout the rest of the year, given the still resilient economic conditions, we think rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, could drift higher in the near term before ending the year between 4.0% to 4.5%.
If “tariff” isn’t the word of the year for stock investors so far, then perhaps it’s “uncertainty.” Uncertainty around trade policy dominated the path of the stock market in the first half and will continue to play a large role in the second half.
We are always happy to talk with anyone who believes they need our help. If you have questions about investing, financial planning, college funding, retirement or any other of a number of matters for which a financial professional can help, please contact us!
Address: 720 Summit Boulevard, Unit 101 B, Frisco, CO 80443
PO BOX 4776 Frisco, CO 80443
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA / SIPC. Investment Advice offered through Western Wealth Management LLC, a registered investment advisor. Affinity Wealth Management Group and Western Wealth Management LLC are separate entities from LPL Financial.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
No information provided on this site is intended to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Ask a Question