Research

Earnings season is usually predictable quarter to quarter in the absence of economic inflection points.

U.S. equity markets have bucked the weak September seasonality trend (thus far) and rallied to fresh highs this month, with the S&P 500 holding onto a 2.8% monthly gain as of September 26.

At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, marking the first rate reduction of the year after eight months of holding steady.

While much has (rightfully) been made of the ongoing debt and deficit spending here in the U.S., the fiscal positions of major developed economies reveal profound disparities in debt management and long-term trend sustainability. Mounting government obligations could have significant implications on economic stability and monetary policy flexibility if not remedied.

The S&P 500 has gained more than 30% since its low on April 8, 2025, and is up 5% since the index fully recovered its early-year correction losses on June 27, 2025 (with a close of 6,144).