Research

With little visibility into where tariff rates shake out and the effects on earnings, it’s hard to have much conviction in a year-end S&P 500 target. Given the high degree of uncertainty, we use scenarios and a wider range to get more comfortable with our target and to increase our odds of accuracy (though we recognize these targets are more art than science).

This week was one of the most volatile weeks in the history of the stock market. That excludes the historic two-day decline on Thursday and Friday the week before (April 3–4). The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% on Tuesday, April 8, surged 9.5% on Wednesday, April 9 (the third biggest up day since 1950), fell 3.5% on Thursday, April 10, and jumped 1.8% on Friday, April 11. The S&P 500 ended up nearly 6% for the week.

Markets got quite a surprise from the Trump administration last week in the form of tariffs above even the most aggressive forecasts, increasing the risks to economic growth and corporate profits.

Wednesday is the big day when the Trump administration will provide more clarity on their tariff plans. The latest news has been a mix of encouraging talk about narrow reciprocal tariffs and deep and biting auto (and auto parts) tariffs. It’s tough to lay out a tariff playbook for investors right now, so our advice is to wait and see. Markets and corporate America will need time to digest the information and figure out their next move. As potential dip buyers, we’re not in a big hurry.

Trade uncertainty and nagging inflation made Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell walk a tightrope at the latest press conference.